Validity is the only way to get accurate results in a PM. To encourage more users, however, incentives and rewards are the only way get better participation. Participation is the key to producing accurate results. As Surowiecki implies, the larger the sample size, the better the accuracy in a Predictive Market. Surowiecki calls it the wisdom of the group.
If a member in an organization believes the results from the Predication can be beneficial, not just monetary, then they are more likely to participate. Factor in the chance for some type of reward or recognition, then an individual is likely to stay and participate. Again, data validity and the belief that the analysis can be applied is essential for increased participation.
You're correct, it's the same trouble that all ebusiness go through as well, right? You can't attract the users until you have good content, but you need a dedicated user base to generate good content.
ReplyDeleteI agree, too. We need valid relevant content in order for people to have good reasons to participate. It's true that if people believe results can be beneficial, they are more likely to participate. In addition, if results are interesting, they would like to participate as well.
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